Crop Sales, Shortages and Peasant Portfolio Behaviour: An Analysis of Angola

This paper focuses on the influence of economic factors on sales of agricultural products in Angola. Between the early 1970s and the mid-1980s the volume of sales declined by c. 90 percent, while during the late 1980s there was a significant recovery. This was partly due to noneconomic factors such as war and drought. However, the rural economy also experienced extraordinary regulatory changes which led to a severe shortage of consumer goods. The article investigates whether the theory of peasant supply response under rationing, appropriately modified for Angolan circumstances, can offer a credible account of changes in official crop sales. The authors argue that macroeconomic events interacted with marketing arrangements to yield predictable and substantial changes in crop sales. The focus is on the period 1984-1988, and in particular on the years 1984, 1986 and 1988. The authors conclude that the theory of peasant supply response under conditions of barter and rationing badly mispredicts. However, once this theory is modified to allow for the change in the regulatory regime in 1986 and the changed incentives regarding portfolio composition, the predictions are at least no longer inconsistent with outcomes. Bibliogr., notes, ref., sum.