Modelling the dynamics of agricultural development: a process approach: the case of Koutiala (Mali)

This thesis explores the suitability of dynamic simulation modelling as a tool to help decisionmakers to increase their ability to understand the dynamics of agricultural development at the farm and regional level, and to analyse the effects of their decisions on development at both levels. The empirical setting of the study is the Koutiala region in southeast Mali. The author develops two dynamic simulation models: a farm model and a regional model. Indicators at the farm level pertain to soil fertility, crop and livestock production, income, and food supply. The regional model simulates the number of farms per farm type, as well as cereal prices. The effects of different management strategies at the farm level and of different policies at the regional level are estimated.